The average probability of a soft landing was 52%, up from 47% in the January CNBC Fed survey. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months fell to 32%, down from 39% in January and 63% in ...
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
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