Economic cycles are normal ebbs and flows in the economy that happen in a repeating pattern. Read more about them inside.

The “business cycle” might just be one of the oldest ideas in economics. For more than 200 years, economists have been pointing to the tendency of economies to expand, then slow down, contract and ...

What are economic cycles? Why is it important to understand economic cycles? What are the main causes of economic cycles? What are the key indicators of economic cycles? How can you predict a ...

Reading this thin volume on business cycles feels like riding the economic roller coaster itself. Beginning with some engaging chapters on the how and why of business cycles, it plummets into a dull ...

We have shown that business cycles of say five to ten years appear naturally due to an instability. Though it is the right ...

While the NBER collects economic data ostensibly to aid policymakers, the data it acquires is useless without proper economic ...

This paper proposes a very tractable approach to modeling changes in regime. The parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process. For example, the mean ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I cover the economic and financial world outside the USA, for the USA. LONDON - OCTOBER 07: In this photo illustration, a man ...

We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in gross domestic product (GDP), credit volumes, and house prices for the USA and the five largest European ...

We are in the downward portion of the global business cycle. Economic growth likely peaked in major economies last year and the slowdown has been pronounced especially in Europe but also in China and ...

The US economy remains resilient. We are beginning to see signs of life in the manufacturing sector, with recent weakness is primarily a result of the most lagging economic data in the form of income ...